Guest Speaker: Sir Mark Lyall Grant, Political Director of the Foreign and Commonwealth Office in London

UK FOREIGN POLICY IN THE 21ST CENTURY

UK Foreign Policy Priorities

I am most grateful to the Rector of the Azeri Diplomatic Academy, Deputy Foreign Minister Pashayev, and his colleagues for inviting me.  It’s been a pleasure to learn of your vision to establish, here in Baku, a world-class international centre on foreign affairs.  My sincere congratulations for the remarkable progress you’ve already achieved.

Secondly, I’m delighted to visit Azerbaijan and to see for myself a place which I’ve heard a great deal about.  Your country is an increasingly important partner to the UK and the European Union.  But more on that later.

My purpose today is to talk about my country’s strategic foreign policy priorities, and how that fits with the challenges of this new century.  I also want to talk about two particularly important neighbours you have – Russia and Iran.  

The UK is one of only three countries to aspire to a global foreign policy.  We have the World’s 5th largest economy; we are a P5 member; and we have an extensive history and ancient democracy.  Our foreign policy is based on values and interest.  And it is an extension of our domestic policy.

We have four strategic policy objectives:

1) Counter-terrorism and counter-proliferation.  This involves: reducing the risks to the UK and its interests overseas from international terrorism (this is what we are doing in Afghanistan); countering the proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction and their means of delivery (eg in Iran);ensuring effective controls and disarmament on all weapons to reduce the risk of conflict (eg the UK initiative on Arms Trade Treaty).

2) Promote a low carbon, high growth global economy.  This is particularly important, but has become massively more difficult following the economic crisis of the last 6 months.  It will require a huge and coordinated international recovery effort.  The UK currently chairs the G20 and will host a summit in London in April.  As well as financial regulation, this summit will focus on growth, jobs and stability.  At the same time, there is clearly an opportunity to make the recovery a ‘green recovery’, which will strengthen climate security in the longer term.

3) Prevent and Resolve Conflict.  This involves:effective conflict prevention, resolution, stabilisation and post-conflict reconstruction;respect for good governance and human rights, building states’ responsibility to protect their own citizens;the prevention of state failure and fragility.

4) Develop effective international institutions, above all the UN and EU.  This involves:building a rules-based international system to meet the challenges of globalisation;reforming the UN, including support for Security Council expansion;incorporating emerging powers (China and India) and encouraging them to play a constructive role;

In 2009, apart from the economic crisis, our top 5 foreign policy priorities will be: 

a) MEPP.  This is the world’s most strategically important conflict. And it is poison in the well of Muslim/Christian/Jewish relations.  The year has started badly.  The Gaza crisis highlighted the failure of international community to resolve the Palestine issue over last 40 years.  But crisis also offers an opportunity (as does the election of a new Israeli leader and of course President Obama’s election).  Key elements of a solution are well known: 2 states, land for peace, a deal for refugees, agreement on Jerusalem as a shared capital.  In the short term, there will need to be a freeze on Israeli settlements in the West Bank and greater Arab buy-in to the peace process.  An active and focused US lead will be required to drive the process forward.  That is why we are delighted that President Obama has signalled his interest from day one.

b) Iran.  I shall come back to that.

c) Afghanistan/Pakistan.  The UK is the 2nd largest contributor to 40+ coalition of countries – including Azerbaijan - trying to bring peace and stability to Afghanistan.  2009 will be an important year, with presidential elections and even greater military and political engagement from US and Europe.  Pakistan is key to success against the Taleban insurgency – but the new civilian government in that country is facing major economic problems and a severe terrorist threat of its own.  Pakistan is of critical importance to the UK.  There are nearly 1m British citizens of Pakistani origin.  70% of security service investigations against possible terrorist threats to the UK link back to Pakistan.

d) Africa.  Despite some recent economic recovery, Africa remains the most marginalised part of the world.  More than 50% of UK aid goes to address poverty and disease.  We are helping to tackle poor governance and corruption; and to reduce conflict – in Sudan, Democratic Republic of Congo, Somalia and Zimbabwe.  These issues take up about 60% of the UNSC agenda.  They reinforce poverty and increase the risk of terrorism and illegal immigration.

e) Russia.

I should like to say a bit more about UK policy on Russia and Iran, both neighbours of Azerbaijan.

Russia.  Since 1989, Russia has been a country in transition.  Like the UK after the 2nd World War, Russia has “lost an empire, but not yet found a role” - or at least a role that it feels comfortable with.  Prime Minister Putin described the collapse of the Soviet Union as “the greatest geo-political catastrophe of the 20th century”.  We do not see it that way.  More important, nor do I think most people in the former Soviet Union or Warsaw Pact see it that way either.  And it will be a tragedy for Russia if it spends the next 20 years believing that to be the case.  

Nor is it the case that Russia was humiliated by the West during this period.  In fact, we offered Russia extensive cooperation with the EU and NATO; membership of the Council of Europe and the G8.  Elaborate mechanisms were developed by the EU and NATO not to humiliate or threaten Russia, but to engage it.  The EU and United States provided critical support for the Russian economy when it was needed and Western companies invested heavily.  

Let me be clear.  The UK (and EU) sees Russia as an important strategic partner.  The UK is the largest single overseas investor in Russia and we have extensive commercial and economic links.  We face many of the same strategic threats from the financial/economic crisis, terrorism and proliferation.  We tackle the same global conflict issues as partners on the Security Council; and G8 members.  We therefore reject the idea of isolating Russia.  That would be counter-productive, even if it were feasible given the inter-dependence in the world economy.

But Russia must play its part too.  Nostalgia for the past has led Russian leaders to bully its neighbours and demand special rights in what Prime Minister Putin calls “the ex-Soviet space”.  This is the backdrop to Russian military action against Georgia last summer and its trying to use the supply of gas to Europe as a political weapon in an attempt to prevent Ukraine looking West as well as East.  These policies are, in our view, self-defeating.  There is no reason for Russia to view security as a zero-sum game; to see the independence of the CIS countries or expansion of the EU and NATO as a threat to their interests.  On the contrary, they should welcome the prospect of greater democracy and stability on their borders.  

If Russia wants the respect owed to it as a regional and global power, it needs to earn that through its engagement with others to tackle some of the world’s problems – not through exerting military or economic force.  The serious impact of the global economic crisis on Russia’s domestic economy demonstrates the interest that Russia should have in positive engagement.  With new Presidents in both Russia and the United States, I see a big opportunity over the next few years for Russia to come out of that transition period and take its rightful place in the world order.

Iran

2009 is a critical year for dealing with the Iran nuclear issue.  The UK is committed to a vision of the world free from nuclear weapons.  We have reduced the explosive power of our nuclear arsenal by 75% in the last 20 years.  The US, Russia and France have cut radically too.  A Middle East free of nuclear weapons is critical to this vision.  That has been our policy for a number of years.  

Iran however is going down a different path.  It continues to enrich uranium in breach of 5 UNSC resolutions.  Because of Iran’s long history of secrecy about its nuclear programme, the international community is seeking verifiable assurances that it is not for a military programme.  The IAEA Director General has made clear that, because of Iran’s failure to cooperate with the IAEA, he is unable to verify that Iran’s programme is for purely peaceful purposes.  The prospect of a nuclear armed Iran poses a serious threat to the stability of this region.  

A nuclear armed Iran would be a decisive blow against those seeking to promote pragmatic and peaceful solutions to the region’s problems.  The consequent nuclear arms race would be very dangerous.  The acquisition of a nuclear weapon would encourage Tehran to attempt to stoke up division and promote instability (through proxies such as Hizbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Palestine) with even greater confidence.  

The UK is 100% committed to a diplomatic resolution to this dispute.  The P5+1 are pursuing a dual-track policy, which has been endorsed by the UN Security Council: to offer Iran a generous package of incentives, including direct support for a peaceful nuclear programme, and pressure through sanctions at the UN and through the EU.  This pressure is not an attempt at regime change, nor a precursor for military action.  They are an attempt to demonstrate to Iranian leaders that they face a choice: either they begin to cooperate with the UN Security Council, halt enrichment and engage constructively with the IAEA; or they continue on the current path towards further confrontation and isolation.  Iran will face this choice in 2009.  The new US Administration has made clear that it will make a special effort to engage with Iran as part of the international diplomatic effort to resolve the crisis peacefully.  Neighbouring countries, such as Azerbaijan, have an important role to play in using your influence in Tehran to persuade the Iranian leadership to take the international offer seriously and avoid the disastrous consequences that would follow continued Iranian defiance.

UK/Azerbaijan  

I shall conclude with a word on UK/Azerbaijan relations.  Exactly 500 years ago the first group of British businessmen arrived on your shores.  Today, the UK is the single largest foreign investor in Azerbaijan.  British expertise and industry is helping you modernise your country and develop your potential, particularly – but by no means only – in the oil and gas sector.  I’m told that there are now so many Scots men and women here in Baku that you host the largest St Andrew’s Night celebrations anywhere in the world.  In turn, the number of Azeri citizens coming to the UK to study, to work and increasingly to live – and not only in Scotland – is growing very fast.  There are now two Azerbaijani language schools operating in London alone.

But of all the links that bind us, the most important one is your strategic choice to orient yourselves increasingly towards Euro-Atlantic structures and standards.  In three months’ time, there will be a summit in Prague to do two very important things.  Firstly, it will publicly mark the EU’s strong support for the creation of a southern energy corridor, designed to bring Caspian hydrocarbon resources to European markets.  That’s a vision which our two countries have shared for some time, of course.  We’ve both worked hard to bring that vision closer to reality.  But what’s different now is the level of attention this vision is receiving from the rest of Europe.

The second thing the Prague summit will do is to launch the EU’s new “Eastern partnership” with six of its neighbours – including Azerbaijan.  That partnership, which the UK strongly supports, opens up the possibility for the first time of a dynamic and evolving relationship between the EU and you.  A partnership which will be specifically tailored to your needs – and to your challenges.  The more you take advantage of it – modernising your structures, driving up standards, reforming your domestic economy, moving closer to European values – the more benefits that partnership will bring to you.  And the deeper the relationship between us will become.

The important point here is that all of this is in Azerbaijan’s own interests.  An Azerbaijan which has more open markets, which has more effective and accountable public services, and which welcomes and embraces public debate, will be an Azerbaijan which is better able to meet the expectations of its own citizens; better able to cope with external challenges and difficult neighbours, and, yes, better able also to reach a genuinely sustainable and peaceful settlement with Armenia to end the terrible tragedy that is Nagorno-Karabagh.  That’s the challenge before you; and that’s the challenge which we and the EU are ready to help you meet.

Once again, I’d like to thank my hosts for giving me this opportunity to talk about UK foreign policy

 

Back to newsroom

Back to top